Southampton v Derby County
Saturday 12:30
Chance of each result
50%
Southampton win
23%
Draw
27%
Derby County win
Goals in the match
3.1 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (11%)Published
Tue 07:04Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Southampton
Chance creation. Southampton generate 1.7 goals' worth of chances per game; Derby County concede 1.2.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.