How the model works
Three steps, no black box. If a step can't be done properly for a fixture, that fixture doesn't get published.
01
Gather the evidence
Chances created and conceded, recent form, home advantage, referee record and confirmed squads — refreshed before every kick-off.
02
Forecast the scoreline
One forecast of how many goals each side scores produces every market, so the numbers can never contradict each other.
03
Grade it in public
Every percentage is settled from the final score and added to the accuracy page. Nothing is edited after the fact.
What this is not
Quanta doesn't publish odds, tips or stakes, and doesn't compare itself to a bookmaker's price. It estimates how likely each outcome is. What you do with that is your business.
Sources
Fixtures, match statistics, referees and squads from SofaScore. Model: independent double-Poisson with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. For information only — not betting advice. 18+.