Derby County v Bolton Wanderers
Friday 20:00
Chance of each result
36%
Derby County win
31%
Draw
33%
Bolton Wanderers win
Goals in the match
2.1 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (14%)Published
Sun 15:04Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Derby County
Chance creation. Derby County generate 1.2 goals' worth of chances per game; Bolton Wanderers concede 1.1.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.