Newcastle United v Arsenal
Saturday 17:30
Chance of each result
30%
Newcastle United win
28%
Draw
43%
Arsenal win
Goals in the match
2.5 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (13%)Published
Mon 22:02Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Arsenal
Chance creation. Newcastle United generate 1.5 goals' worth of chances per game; Arsenal concede 0.7.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.