Manchester United v Aston Villa
Sunday 16:30
Chance of each result
60%
Manchester United win
21%
Draw
19%
Aston Villa win
Goals in the match
3.1 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (10%)Published
Mon 22:02Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Manchester United
Chance creation. Manchester United generate 1.7 goals' worth of chances per game; Aston Villa concede 1.4.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.