Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
Saturday 17:30
Chance of each result
23%
Nottingham Forest win
24%
Draw
53%
Manchester City win
Goals in the match
2.8 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (11%)Published
Mon 22:02Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Manchester City
Chance creation. Nottingham Forest generate 1.2 goals' worth of chances per game; Manchester City concede 1.2.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.