Real Madrid v Villarreal
Saturday 20:00 · Bernabéu
Chance of each result
74%
Real Madrid win
14%
Draw
13%
Villarreal win
Goals in the match
4.6 likelyMost likely score
3-1 (8%)Published
Thu 19:00Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Real Madrid
Chance creation. Real Madrid generate 2.6 goals' worth of chances per game; Villarreal concede 1.3.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.