Aston Villa v Manchester City
Saturday 12:30 · Villa Park
Chance of each result
23%
Aston Villa win
25%
Draw
52%
Manchester City win
Goals in the match
2.6 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (12%)Published
Thu 19:03Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Manchester City
Chance creation. Aston Villa generate 0.9 goals' worth of chances per game; Manchester City concede 1.2.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.