Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Saturday 17:30 · St James' Park
Chance of each result
46%
Newcastle United win
28%
Draw
27%
Aston Villa win
Goals in the match
2.4 likelySubscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Newcastle United
Chance creation. Newcastle United generate 1.1 goals' worth of chances per game; Aston Villa concede 1.4.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.