1. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Saturday 14:30 · MEWA Arena
Chance of each result
22%
1. FSV Mainz 05 win
19%
Draw
60%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
Goals in the match
4.1 likelyMost likely score
1-2 (8%)Published
Thu 19:00Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Chance creation. 1. FSV Mainz 05 generate 2.2 goals' worth of chances per game; Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede 1.4.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.