Derby County v Watford
Saturday 15:00
Chance of each result
38%
Derby County win
32%
Draw
30%
Watford win
Goals in the match
2.0 likelyMost likely score
1-0 (14%)Published
Sun 15:01Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Derby County
Chance creation. Derby County generate 1.2 goals' worth of chances per game; Watford concede 1.3.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.