Southampton v Middlesbrough
Friday 20:00
Chance of each result
46%
Southampton win
26%
Draw
28%
Middlesbrough win
Goals in the match
2.7 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (12%)Published
Sun 15:00Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Southampton
Chance creation. Southampton generate 1.7 goals' worth of chances per game; Middlesbrough concede 0.9.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.