Burnley v Birmingham City
Wednesday 19:45
Chance of each result
40%
Burnley win
29%
Draw
31%
Birmingham City win
Goals in the match
2.3 likelyMost likely score
1-1 (14%)Published
Thu 15:02Subscribers
The clearest call on this match
Result percentages stay free. Subscribers see the market the model is most sure about, every market it prices, and player props — scorers, shots on target, cards and assists.
Unlock for £9 / monthWhy it leans Burnley
Chance creation. Burnley generate 1.4 goals' worth of chances per game; Birmingham City concede 0.9.
Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.
Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.