1. FSV Mainz 05 v 1. FC Union Berlin

Fixtures/Bundesliga/1. FSV Mainz 05 v 1. FC Union Berlin

Saturday 14:30

Low confidence

Chance of each result

38%

1. FSV Mainz 05 win

25%

Draw

37%

1. FC Union Berlin win

Goals in the match

2.9 likely

Most likely score

1-1 (12%)

Published

Mon 22:11

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Why it leans 1. FSV Mainz 05

Chance creation. 1. FSV Mainz 05 generate 1.6 goals' worth of chances per game; 1. FC Union Berlin concede 1.5.

Recency. The most recent matches carry most of the weight, so early-season results barely register.

Home advantage. Measured per team from its own home and away record, not assumed from a league-wide constant.

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